Home Publications AWAE Climate Change Publications

For one or two-page science briefing papers, go to the AWAE Briefing Papers page and select "CLIMATE CHANGE"

For Climate Shield Cold-Water Refuge Streams for Native Trout publications, visit the Climate Shield publications page

Air, Water, and Aquatic Environments Peer-reviewed Climate Change Publciations

Adams, Henry D.; Luce, Charles H.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Weiler, Markus; Hale, V. Cody; Smith, Alistair M. S.; Huxman, Travis E. 2012. Ecohydrological consequences of drought- and infestation-triggered tree die-off: Insights and hypotheses. Ecohydrology. Ecohydrology. 5: 145-159.

Bayley, T., Elliot, W., Nearing, M.A., Guertin, D.P., Johnson, T., Goodrich, D., Flanagan, D.  2010.  Modeling erosion under future climates with the WEPP model.  Proc. of the 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, 27 June – 1 July, Las Vegas, NV.  12 p.

Clifton, Caty F.; Day, Kate T.; Dello, Kathie; Grant, Gordon E.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Safeeq, Mohammad; Staab, Brian P.; Stevenson, John. 2017. Climate change and hydrology in the Blue Mountains [Chapter 3]. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-939. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 25-52.

Clifton, Caty F.; Day, Kate T.; Grant, Gordon E.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Luce, Charles H.; Staab, Brian P. 2017. Climate change, water resources, and roads in the Blue Mountains [Chapter 4]. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-939. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 53-90.

Cooke, Brian; Battaglia, Mike; Dwire, Kathleen; Isaak, Dan; Joyce, Linda; Merritt, David; Oropeza, Jill; Regan, Claudia; Reynolds, Lindsay; Rice, Janine; Schillie, Trey. 2018. Warming and warnings: Assessing climate change vulnerability in the Rocky Mountain Region. Science You Can Use Bulletin, Special General Technical Report Companion. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. 15 p.

Dillon, Gregory K.; Holden, Zachery A.; Morgan, Penelope; Crimmins, Michael A.; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Luce, Charles H. 2011. Both topography and climate affected forest and woodland burn severity in two regions of the western US, 1984 to 2006. Ecosphere. 2(12): 130.

Dwire, Kathleen A.; Mellmann-Brown, Sabine. 2017. Climate change and special habitats in the Blue Mountains: Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems [Chapter 7]. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-939. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 251-323.

Eby, Lisa A.; Helmy, Olga; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Young, Michael K. 2014. Evidence of climate-induced range contractions in bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain watershed, U.S.A. PLoS ONE. 9(6): e98812.

Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gottfried, Gerald J.; Chen, Hui; Kauffman, Aaron T.; Stropki, Cody L.; Neary, Daniel G. 2013. Soil erosion and deposition before and after fire in oak savannas. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gebow, Brooke S.; Eskew, Lane G.; Collins, Loa C. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III and 7th Conference on Research and Resource Management in the Southwestern Deserts; 2012 May 1-5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 325-328.

Furniss, Michael J.; Staab, Brian P.; Hazelhurst, Sherry; Clifton, Cathrine F.; Roby, Kenneth B.; Ilhadrt, Bonnie L.; Larry, Elizabeth B.; Todd, Albert H.; Reid, Leslie M.; Hines, Sarah J.; Bennett, Karen A.; Luce, Charles H.; Edwards, Pamela J. 2010. Water, climate change, and forests: watershed stewardship for a changing climate. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-812. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 75 p.

Goode, Jaime R.; Buffington, John M.; Tonina, Daniele; Isaak, Daniel J.; Thurow, Russell F.; Wenger, Seth; Nagel, David; Luce, Charlie; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Soulsby, Chris. 2013. Potential effects of climate change on streambed scour and risks to salmonid survival in snow-dominated mountain basins. Hydrological Processes. 27: 750-765.

Goode, Jaime R.; Luce, Charles H.; Buffington, John M. 2012. Enhanced sediment delivery in a changing climate in semi-arid mountain basins: Implications for water resource management and aquatic habitat in the northern Rocky Mountains. Geomorphology. 139-140: 1-15.

Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Brooks, Kenneth N.; Kolka, Randall K.; Raish, Carol B.; Neary, Daniel G. 2014. Contributions of studies on experimental forests to hydrology and watershed management https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/46899. In: Hayes, D.C.; Stout, S.L.; Crawford, R.H.; Hoover, A.P., eds. USDA Forest Service experimental forests and ranges research for the long term. New York, NY:311-340.

Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Neary, Daniel G. 2013. Effects of prescribed fires and a wildfire on biological resources of oak savannas in the Peloncillo Mountains, New Mexico. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gebow, Brooke S.; Eskew, Lane G.; Collins, Loa C. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III and 7th Conference on Research and Resource Management in the Southwestern Deserts; 2012 May 1-5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 341-344.

Gottfried, Gerald; Neary, Daniel; Ffolliott, Peter; Koestner, Karen. 2012. Cascabel prescribed fire long-term watershed study: an opportunity to monitor climate change. In: Revisiting Experimental Catchment Studies in Forest Hydrology; Proceedings of a Workshop held during the XXV IUGG General Assembly in Melbourne, June-July 2011. IAHS Publ 353. Online: http://www.iahs.info/uploads/dms/16045.353%20Abstracts%2022.pdf

Holden, Zachary A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Luce, Charles H.; Baggett, L. Scott. 2011. Empirical downscaling of daily minimum air temperature at very fine resolutions in complex terrain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 151: 1066-1073.

Holden, Zachary A.; Luce, Charles H.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Morgan, Penelope. 2011. Wildfire extent and severity correlated with annual streamflow distribution and timing in the Pacific Northwest, USA (1984-2005). Ecohydrology. 5(5): 677-684.

Holsinger, Lisa; Keane, Robert E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Eby, Lisa; Young, Michael K. 2014. Relative effects of climate change and wildfires on stream temperatures: A simulation modeling approach in a Rocky Mountain watershed. Climatic Change. 124: 191-206.

Isaak, Daniel J. 2014. Climate change and the future of freshwater fisheries. In: Taylor, William W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Leonard, Nancy J., eds. Future of Fisheries: Perspectives for the Next Generation of Professionals. Bethesda, MD: American Fisheries Society. Online: https://fisheries.org/shop/55073p.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Horan, Dona L.; Wollrab, Sherry P. 2013. A simple protocol using underwater epoxy to install annual temperature monitoring sites in rivers and streams. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-314. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 21 p.

Isaak, D.J., C. Luce, D. Horan, G. Chandler, S. Wollrab, and D. Nagel. 2018. Global warming of salmon and trout rivers in the northwestern U.S.: Road to ruin or path through purgatory? Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 147: 566-587. DOI:10.1002/tafs.10059.

related poster: Global warming of salmon and trout rivers in the northwestern U.S.: Road to ruin or path through purgatory?

related briefing paper: Fishing for Climate Data: How Recent Research is Helping to Forecast Changes in Salmon and Trout Habitat

Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Nagel, David E.; Peterson, Erin E.; Horan, Dona L.; Parkes, Sharon; Chandler, Gwynne L. 2010. Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. Ecological Applications. 20(5): 1350-1371.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W. 2012. The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-Century climate effects on Rocky Mountain trout. Fisheries. 37(12): 542-556.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Ramsey, Katherine; Chatel, John C.; Konnoff, Deborah L.; Gecy, Robert A.; Horan, Dona. 2017. Climate change, fish, and aquatic habitat in the Blue Mountains [Chapter 5]. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-939. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 91-148.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Rieman, Bruce E. 2013. Stream isotherm shifts from climate change and implications for distributions of ectothermic organisms. Global Change Biology. 19: 742-751.

Isaak, D., S. Wenger, E. Peterson, J. Ver Hoef, D. Nagel, C. Luce, S. Hostetler, J. Dunham, B. Roper, S. Wollrab, G. Chandler, D. Horan, S. Parkes-Payne. 2017. The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams. Water Resources Research, 53: 9181-9205. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Wenger, Seth J.; Young, Michael K. 2017. Big biology meets microclimatology: Defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning. Ecological Applications. doi: 10.1002/eap.1501.

Isaak, D. J.; Wollrab, S.; Horan, D.; Chandler, G. 2011. Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980-2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. Climatic Change. 113: 499-524.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Luce, Charles H.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Wenger, Seth J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Groce, Matthew C.; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David E. 2016. Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity. PNAS. 113(16): 4374-4379.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David; Schwartz, Michael K.; Mckelvey, Kevin S. 2022. Do metapopulations and management matter for relict headwater bull trout populations in a warming climate? Ecological Applications. 2022: e2594.

Isaak, D.J., M.K. Young, D. Nagel, and D. Horan. 2014. Cold water as a climate shield to preserve native trout through the 21st Century. Pages 110 - 116 in R. F. Carline and C. LoSapio, editors. Wild Trout XI: Looking Back and Moving Forward. Wild Trout Symposium, Bozeman, Montana. 392 pages.

Isaak, D., M. Young, D. Nagel, D. Horan, and M. Groce. 2015. The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st Century. Global Change Biology. 21:2540-2553.

Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Tait, Cynthia; Duffield, Daniel; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David E.; Groce, Matthew C. 2018. Effects of climate change on native fish and other aquatic species [Chapter 5]. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Ho, Joanne J.; Little, Natalie, J.; Joyce, Linda A., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 1]. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-375. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 89-111.

Luce, C. H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Holden, Z. A. 2013. The missing mountain water: Slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA. Science. 342: 1360-1364.

Luce, C. H.; Holden, Z. A. 2009. Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006. Geophysical Research Letters. 36: L16401. doi:10.1029/2009GL039407. 6 p.

Luce, Charles; Morgan, Penny; Dwire, Kathleen; Isaak, Daniel; Holden, Zachary; Rieman, Bruce. 2012. Climate change, forests, fire, water, and fish: Building resilient landscapes, streams, and managers. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-290. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 207 p.

Luce, Charles; Staab, Brian; Kramer, Marc; Wenger, Seth; Isaak, Dan; McConnell, Callie. 2014. Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest. Water Resources Research. doi: 10.1002/2013WR014329

Mahlum, Shad K.; Eby, Lisa A.; Young, Michael K.; Clancy, Chris G.; Jakober, Mike. 2011. Effects of wildfire on stream temperatures in the Bitterroot River basin, Montana. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 20: 240-247.

McKean, Jim; Tonina, Daniele. 2013. Bed stability in unconfined gravel bed mountain streams: With implications for salmon spawning viability in future climates. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface. 118: 1227-1240.

Millar, David J.; Cooper, David J.; Dwire, Kathleen A.; Hubbard, Robert M.; von Fischer, Joseph. 2016. Mountain peatlands range from CO2 sinks at high elevations to sources at low elevations: Implications for a changing climate. Ecosystems. doi: 10.1007/s10021-016-0034-7.

Peterson, Douglas P.; Wenger, Seth J.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Isaak, Daniel J. 2013. Linking climate change and fish conservation efforts using spatially explicit decision support tools. Fisheries. 38(3): 112-127 + 58 pages of appendices.

Petrie, M. D.; Bradford, J. B.; Hubbard, R. M.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Andrews, C. M.; Schlaepfer, D. R. 2017. Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century. Ecology. 98(6): 1548-1559.

Petrie, M. D.; Wildeman, A. M.; Bradford, J. B.; Hubbard, R .M.; Lauenroth, W. K. 2016. A review of precipitation and temperature control on seedling emergence and establishment for ponderosa and lodgepole pine forest regeneration. Forest Ecology and Management. 361: 328-338.

Poff, Boris; Koestner, Karen A.; Neary, Daniel G.; Henderson, Victoria. 2011. Threats to riparian ecosystems in western North America: An analysis of existing literature. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). 1-14. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00571.x

Rieman, Bruce E.; Isaak, Daniel J. 2010. Climate change, aquatic ecosystems, and fishes in the Rocky Mountain West: implications and alternatives for management. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-250. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 46 p.

Rieman, Bruce E.; Isaak, Daniel; Adams, Susan; Horan, Dona; Nagel, David; Luce, Charles; Myers, Deborah 2007. Anticipated climate warming effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the interior Columbia River basin. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society. 136: 1552-1565.

Ryan, Michael G.; Vose, James M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Iverson, Louis R.; Miniat, Chelcy F.; Luce, Charles H.; Band, Lawrence E.; Klein, Steven L.; McKenzie, Don; Wear, David N. 2014. Forest processes [Chapter 3]. In: Peterson, D.L.; Vose, J.M.; Patel-Weynand, T., eds. Climate change and the United States forest. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer: 25-54.

Stamp, Jen; Hamilton, Anna; Craddock, Michelle; Parker, Laila; Roy, Allison H.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Holden, Zach; Passmore, Margaret; Bierwagen, Britta G. 2014. Best practices for continuous monitoring of temperature and flow in wadeable streams. EPA/600/R-13/170F. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Global Change Research Program. 70 p.

Vose, James M.; Clark, James S.; Luce, Charles H.; Patel-Weynard, Toral, eds. 2016. Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: A comprehensive science synthesis. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-93b. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office. 289 p.

Vose, James M.; Ford, Chelcy R.; Laseter, Stephanie; Dymond, Salli; Sun, GE; Adams, Mary Beth; Sebestyen, Stephen; Campbell, John; Luce, Charles; Amatya, Devendra; Elder, Kelly; Heartsill-Scalley, Tamara. 2012. Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change impacts on water resources?. In: Webb, Ashley A.; Bonell, Mike; Bren, Leon; Lane, Patrick N. J.; et. al., eds. Revisiting experimental catchment studies in forest hydrology. Proceedings of a workshop held during the XXV International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics; 2011 June 27- July 8; Melbourne, Australia. International Association of Hydrological Sciences Publication 353. Osfordshire, UK: International Association of Hydrological Sciences Publication: 12-25.

Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Dunham, Jason B.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Young, Michael K.; Nagel, David E.; Horan, Dona L.; Chandler, Gwynne L. 2011. Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science. 68: 988-1008.

Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Dunham, Jason B.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Young, Michael K.; Elsner, Marketa M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Williams, Jack E. 2011. Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change [includes Supporting Information]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). 108(34): 14175-14180.

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M. 2010. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Water Resources Research. 46: W09513. doi:10.1029/2009WR008839.

Wenger, Seth J.; Som, Nicholas A.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.; Luce, Charles H.; Dunham, Jason B.; Young, Michael K.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Rieman, Bruce E. 2013. Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change. Global Change Biology. Accepted paper. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12294.

Williams J.E., Isaak D.J., Imhof J., Hendrickson D.A. and McMillan J.R 2015. Cold-water fishes and climate change in North America, Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.09505-1.

Youberg, Ann; Neary, Daniel G.; Koestner, Karen A.; Koestner, Peter E. 2013. Post-wildfire erosion in the Chiricahua Mountains. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gebow, Brooke S.; Eskew, Lane G.; Collins, Loa C. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III and 7th Conference on Research and Resource Management in the Southwestern Deserts; 2012 May 1-5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 357-361.

Young, Michael K.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Spaulding, Scott; Thomas, Cameron A.; Barndt, Scott A.; Groce, Matthew C.; Horan, Dona; Nagel, David E. 2018. Climate vulnerability of native cold-water salmonids in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 5]. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Dante-Wood, S. Karen; Hoang, Linh; Ho, Joanne J.; Joyce, Linda A., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 1]. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-374. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 87-127.